A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Each composes two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
