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Beijing has deployed its coast guard through the maritime area of the Senkaku islands and military drones past remote Japanese territory as China ramps up tensions over the Japanese prime minister’s remarks regarding Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

This past Sunday, the China's maritime patrol announced that its ships carried out a “lawful patrol operation” through the territorial seas of the Diaoyu islands, which are under the control of Japan but also asserted as territory by Beijing.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 performed surveillance within the territorial waters of the Senkaku islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity conducted by the China coast guard to uphold its rights and interests,” the statement said.

Diplomatic Spat

China and Japan have consistently clashed around the disputed territory but the recent developments occur during an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japan's leader, the Japanese official, told parliament that if China attack democratically ruled Taiwan it might provoke a military response from Japan.

That provoked a furious reaction from Beijing, which has indicated it demands a retraction from the Japanese official.

Taiwan's Position

Beijing asserts the island as its own territory and intends to annex it under what it terms “unification”. It has not ruled out the military option. Taiwan’s government and people overwhelmingly reject the prospect of Chinese rule – choosing to preserve the status quo without formally announcing independence, but vowing to defend themselves if necessary.

An attack or invasion by China would threaten to spiral into a international confrontation, possibly drawing in the US and other partner nations including Japan, which has land just 110km (68 miles) from Taiwan.

Defense Operations

On the island, the defence ministry reported this weekend that it had observed 30 Chinese military aircraft, multiple naval vessels and one government vessel, which was probably the maritime patrol, active near the island over the past 24 hours.

Official charts released showed up to three drones flying between the island and the Japanese islands off its northeastern shoreline, appearing to go particularly close to the nearby Japanese island. PLA movements there are occasional, but uncommon, and Chinese military activity in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been low in recent weeks.

Earlier this weekend, the ministry said China had been conducting another “joint combat patrol” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It noted the island had dispatched military assets to monitor the situation. Taiwan documents these operations a couple of times a month as part of what Taipei says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Diplomatic Pressure

Japan has been experiencing increased strain from Beijing since the Japanese official made her remarks, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in Osaka triggering an official complaint from Japan by stating that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

China then called in Japan's diplomat for the first time in more than two years, and Beijing's military authorities declared that any Japanese intervention would be doomed to fail.

Travel and Education Advisory

Late last week, Beijing cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “suitable actions”, though it did not elaborate.

Three Chinese airlines announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be cancelled without penalty.

In another escalation, Beijing's administration on the weekend urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it described as an unstable security environment.

Although not an outright prohibition, a significant decrease in the population of learners from China could have a negative impact on academic institutions in Japan. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were studying in Japan last year, according to education statistics. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the single biggest group.

Official Commentary

Earlier this weekend, a official press commentary charged the Japanese official with performing a diplomatic maneuver that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a limited skirmish; it would likely draw in other powers, including the US, and could rapidly escalate to a major confrontation with unimaginable consequences.”

Strategic Positions

The government of Taiwan says only its people can decide its future. Officials in Tokyo have previously avoided discussing the island openly when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also favoured by Japan's primary defense partner, the US.

Nevertheless, China’s ruling Communist party says the incorporation of the island with the People’s Republic of China is “unavoidable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, Beijing has also been escalating its non-military activity and its rhetoric towards the island.