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Increasing concerns are present over the potential of armed conflict involving East African neighbours, the Ethiopian government and Eritrea, as confrontational discourse has escalated in the last month.

What Did Ethiopian Officials Declared?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, demands for passage to the maritime outlet through Eritrean territory has triggered a intense verbal exchange.

The Ethiopian leader previously announced in 2023 that his government's maritime access was an existential matter, remarks that Eritrea ignored.

Diplomatic connections between the two countries have often been tense. After a prolonged struggle for freedom, Eritrea, which has a long maritime frontage, formally separated from Ethiopian rule in the early 1990s, rendering it without sea access.

Five years later, a military clash erupted in which over a hundred thousand people lost their lives.

Current Remarks from Ethiopian Officials

Abiy and army chief the army commander have directly stated sovereignty of Eritrean coastal city of Assab – about 60km from the frontier - and implied the desire to seize it militarily.

On 1 September, the Prime Minister said Ethiopia's "error" of losing access to the Red Sea as a due to Eritrean independence would be "corrected soon".

Ethiopia's ambassador to neighboring Kenya, ex-military officer Bacha, said that the port was "belonging to Ethiopia" and would be given back "using武力".

Eritrea's Answer to the Claims

Despite ongoing threats from Ethiopian officials, Eritrea's reaction has been confined to short statements on X from Communications Head the minister.

The minister has dismissed Ethiopia's demand for access to the Red Sea labeling it "risky" and a "harmful plan" of "territorial claims" – a policy of reclaiming previous domains.

The information ministry alerted on recently that attempts to justify "flagrant aggression" would have serious consequences for Ethiopia and its neighbouring countries and is a "limit that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Security Preparations on the Ground

So far, there are few indications of significant troop deployments in the frontier regions between the neighboring states.

Nevertheless, in Ethiopia, national TV has displayed training completions of thousands of cadets at various military training camps.

The leader of personnel division of the military, Lt Gen Hachalu Sheleme, recently said in an discussion that the army was in a "strong stance" as "tens of thousands of youths" were enlisting, which he said was "a signal to our enemies".

Past Background of the Dispute

For decades from the late 19th century, Eritrea was ruled by Italian colonisers.

After Italy's defeat, it was then controlled by the UK forces before turning into a federated part of Ethiopia.

But in 1962 Emperor Haile Selassie I cancelled this agreement and the region became fully incorporated into Ethiopia.

A thirty-year armed struggle followed, ending with the government's loss in the early 1990s. Sovereignty was then approved by the population in a referendum in 1993.

For a few years in the 1990s, there were good relations between the authorities in Addis Ababa and Asmara, but they fell out over the exact location of their common border, causing conflict in 1998.

Though this ended in a peace deal in 2000, it was never fully implemented, and the two nations stayed at loggerheads.

This situation improved in 2018, when the Prime Minister made overtures to Eritrea's leader Isaias Afwerki. The two endorsed a statement that the hostilities was over – a decision that won the Prime Minister the prestigious award.

The both administrations were then allies in Ethiopia's previous armed struggle in the northern region.

However diplomatic connections have since broken down again.