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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple formula. It often acts as a kind of apology. Sorry we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic resurgence is handed the prize. In reality, it fuels an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or merely the biggest shock.

Yet the current field is fundamentally different. The list of contenders is unusually deep. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with recent division champions declining and longtime also-rans rising in unison. In an normal year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in this chaotic and thrilling season, he's facing multiple other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right system, Williams has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his rare ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become more confident, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an offense built solely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a steady helping of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to conjure magic out of nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Almost every decision – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the kind of expectations he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a typical season, he would be the runaway favorite. But the current isn't a normal year!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. But Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a given following his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect staff mix of new ideas and experience, Coen bet on newbies. From the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. Yet he has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

After an early hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason collapse had the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off since that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still